Dawn

Dawn

Friday, August 15, 2008

President Zapatero has had a crisis meeting with several of his cabinet members - I'm assuming the older, more experienced ones - and has issued a plan to deal with what he admits is no longer a 'gentle deceleration' but a rampaging economic crisis. I don't know whether the man has a talent for hostages to fortune but his latest headline statement is that Spain is dealing with said crisis better than Germany, France and Italy. I guess this is based on the fact there was a tiddling bit of growth [0.1%] in the Spanish economy in the second quarter, against reductions in the other three. The problem with this claim are, firstly, the margin of error is surely enough to make this a contentious statement on its own; secondly, it ignores the fact that Spain's fall from rapid to nil growth has been more precipitate than that of any other country; and, thirdly, that Spaniards are not alone in being sceptical about government statistics. Then there are the country's underlying structural problems, so long masked by a phony construction and consumer boom and which raise serious concerns about the near and mid-term future.

Take housing as an example of specious numbers. As a Spanish commentator recently wrote somewhere, this is a miasma of false public data. There can't be many Spaniards who don't know you can't trust the numbers in the deeds signed in the notaries' offices as these are usually understated to reduce the horrendous 7% transfer tax. Nor can you use the valuations done for mortgages as, for one reason or another, these are traditionally overstated. Nor can you use the mortgage amounts as the false valuations have been used to gain cash above that of the price of the property. And neither can you use planning submissions data as the properties may never be started, finished or sold. At least not right now. The Spanish government has its own methodology to deal with this problem but, as they don't say what this is, we can have no idea whether it's right to say that prices were still growing in the last quarter. Except that we can use our common sense and conclude that the government must be mad if it really thinks this is true and/or knows it's false but expects us to believe it's true.

Another unsubstantiated number from President Zapatero this week is that the Spanish economy will be back to a very healthy 3% growth rate by 2010. But we're given no idea as to what might be the motors of this relatively rapid re-seizure of the economic heights. Meanwhile, we read today that July saw another record month for borrowing from the European Central Bank by cash-strapped Spanish banks. All of whom, by the way, suddenly seem to have discovered that customers really do prefer to have a safe time-deposit paying interest above the inflation rate to one of several 'dynamic' stock-market-linked funds with numerous bells and whistles which guarantee a good return to the bank but only a percentage of your original [inflation-devalued] cash back if disaster strikes. This new-found customer orientation must be a true reflection of the banks' desperation. Normally they can't be bothered.

Anyway, if you want a more detailed rejection of Zap's Pollyanna perspective, I think the latest edition of The Economist can oblige.

Galicia

I don't know whether Sr. Z is right about 3% economic growth in 2010 but when it comes to the disagreement between him and the country's civil engineers about whether it's feasible to have the high-speed AVE train operating between Madrid and Galicia by the government's oft-guaranteed date of 2012, then I think I'll have to go with the engineers. Especially as I'm on record as predicting a date of 2018, as far as I can recall.

The Galician President - of the same party as Mr Z - is playing fast and loose with the imminent election date. My suspicion is that he's as dubious about his boss's claims as we are and will bring this forward to later this year for fear that the devastation will be even greater by next March. And who could blame him?

I fancy I may have been a bit more curmudgeonly than usual today. I put this down to writing my blog at 6pm, which is when I take my second glass of wine of the day. So, if Mr Z is reading this, I do apologise.

Which reminds me - does anyone agree that, in 4 years of writing about Galicia and Pontevedra - it's odd that no one from any local newspaper or from the council or Xunta has ever been in touch? Either to thank, praise, criticise, threaten or suborn me. Or am I suffering from delusions of grandeur? If so, I put it down to the grape. Which is actually vinho verde from Portugal.

This in turn reminds me - in a roundabout way - that I've finally discovered a restaurant on the outskirts of Pontevedra that serves venison, kid and wild boar. But, here's the rub: I'm only prepared to reveal its name and location for cash. In vino veritas.

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