Dawn

Dawn

Friday, May 15, 2009

In yesterday’s post I drew a distinction between Liberal (Leftish) and liberal (loose/lax) but I wonder whether anyone noticed. Anyway, what I forgot is that here in Spain the word also has – in the business/financial context – the pejorative sense of red-in-tooth-and-claw. Naturally, it’s the term usually applied to Anglo-Saxon economies. Which is a little ironic as the word was first used in a political sense, I believe, in respect of a party established down in Cádiz in the 1830s, to indicate they were to the left of everyone else. As chance would have it, today’s El Mundo obliged us with the present-day Spanish use of the word by describing the number 2 in the Finance Ministry of the Socialist government as liberal because he advocated ‘reformist’ plans likely to be better received by the right-of-centre Opposition than by his colleagues. Perhaps this is the first sign of the accuracy of the prediction described in the following paragraph . . .

In a long and knowledgeable dissertation on the Spanish banks’ version of toxic debt (cédulas hipotecarias), Edward Hugh makes the point that the EU has, as predicted, found a way to solve the problem of the delinquency of some of its members which should, in theory, have meant them departing the eurozone and bringing the whole political edifice crashing down. At least, I think this is what he’s saying but it’s a complex subject for us laymen. Anyway, the other main point he makes is that this means the EU, like the IMF with Britain in the 70s, will now effectively control the Spanish economy – the piper and the tune – and will force the structural changes long talked about but consummately neglected by successive Spanish governments of both stamps. So it won’t matter for much longer that President Zapatero can’t even spell ‘economics’ and that his new Finance Minister is not well qualified to have a go either. Edward goes on to ask questions about how exactly the EU will go about refinancing the Spanish banks’ debts but this is much too esoteric for me and probably doesn’t matter to the hombre in the calle as much as his view that the worst year for Spain will be 2011. Or to put it in his words . . . “It’s a complete nightmare, with the only bright spot being imminent control of the political system being assumed in Brussels and Frankfurt.” Of course, he could be wrong and we won’t get the ‘budget from hell’ he predicts. Things seem pretty relaxed in this café right now . . .

Talking of Spanish tribalism . . . I suppose it could happen at a Wembley match between teams from Scotland and Wales.

Back in the UK, the scandal over MPs’ outrageous expenses has now led to the prospect of the UK Independent Party beating Labour into 3rd place in the June elections, behind the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. It’s almost unimaginable that Gordon Brown wouldn’t ‘go to the country’ after such a shock. But, that said, I wouldn’t bet against him staying. Interesting times. If also demeaning and depressing. When I wrote that the sham New Labour administration would go down in history as one of the worst in living memory, this isn’t quite what I had in mind.

Since I wrote the above paragraph, I’ve read this comment – “If the results are as bad as the latest polls suggest, Labour will be headed for disaster, with little hope of returning to office in less than two Parliaments, and the prospect of losing half their present MPs at the next election. It is even possible this might prove to be the last Labour Government, if it caused another split similar to the creation of the Social Democratic Party in the 1980s.” Probably not but it’s a sobering thought that – after such a triumphalist start - the last 12 years could turn out to be the swan song of the British Labour Party.

Which reminds me of a bit of doggerel which will allow me to end this heavy post with a smile . . .
Swans sing before they die.
T'were no bad thing
did certain people
die before they sing.

Thank-you and goodnight.

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