Dawn

Dawn

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

All bets are now off for tomorrow’s UK elections, with a hung parliament still being predicted by virtually all observers. For what it’s worth, here’s one analyst’s view of what he regards as the least bad outcome of tomorrow’s voting. Incidentally, Sky is making a huge thing about this being the first election for which their results coverage will be in high definition. As if this will make the programs any less boring.

I wonder if in Greece the prevailing philosophy is that, if someone is dumb enough to give you the chance to take money from them – by fair means or foul – you’re a fool if you don’t? Especially if it means you won’t have to work much for the rest of your life. Is so, was anyone in Brussels aware of this when Greece became a member of the EU? Ditto one or two other member countries as well. Though probably not Germany.

Anyway, here’s some common sense reasons for not gloating over the Greek tragedy, especially if you live in the UK.

As for Spain, we seem today to be a little further along the road to Edward Hugh’s Doomsday scenario. One problem, of course, is that – as with currency devaluations – a ratings downgrade based on anticipated poor economic performance is rather self-fulfilling. Sentiment and herd instinct take over and it avails Sr Zapatero but little to dismiss as ludicrous all talk of Spain needing IMF intervention. His cost of borrowing is going to go on rising until there’s a lot more clarity and certainty around. Which may be a while yet.

Meanwhile, one commentator has said – in respect of the ECB’s decision to accept Greek junk bonds as collateral – “Better to break up the rulebook than to break up the euro”. While the contrary view is that “The structural integrity of EMU, the euro, the ECB, and the IMF has been weakened, in exchange for temporary safety of Greek bonds. This is a huge price to pay to save a not-very-deserving country”. So . . . was it common sense or the epitome of panic? Was the decision economic or political? Discuss.

Well, anyone waiting to see fotos of the dove chicks emerging from the nest near my bedroom window will be as disappointed as I am. There’s been a pair of magpies swirling round the garden the last couple of days and tonight the nest is devoid of its three eggs. And the magpies have moved on. Which is a shame, as I would have liked to shoot the piebald bastards out of the sky.

Finally . . .I haven’t mentioned zebra crossings for a while. So here you go.

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