Dawn

Dawn

Friday, May 07, 2010

Politics, here and there.

How cruel politics can be. In the end, the high-hoping LibDems actually lost a few seats and didn’t even get the 25% of my final, lower prediction - never mind the 28 to 30% being talked about only a couple of days ago. In fact they got 23%, a mere one percentage point up on the last general election. As to where the UK goes from here – as the discredited Labour Party tries to cling on to power – I guess it will be at least a couple of days before we know the answer to this. So much for the sea-change in politics that was predicted/expected/hoped for. Actually, I found the sight of Gordon Brown – never elected as leader of the Labour Party – mouthing the words of unelected Lord Mandelson as he made a naked bid to retain power via a scurrilous pact with the LibDems one of the more vomit-inducing experiences of my life. I know that capitalists must do what capitalists do and politicians must do what politicians do, but do these two not yet realise just how discredited the political class is in the UK? For good reason, it would seem. I do hope the LibDems can stretch their minds back ten to twelve years and recall how Labour (under ‘pretty regular guy’ Tony Blair) duped them over a change in the electoral system both before and after the 1997 election. That said, I regard a Labour-LibDem pact as not just an immoral betrayal of whatever message (if any) the British electorate was trying to give but also highly unlikely. Nick Clegg may just turn out to be as principled as he’s claimed. Or at least sensible. And sensitive.

Anyway, no one seems to have any idea of why the LibDems flopped on the night. Though it must be some compensation to them they’re still the king-makers they were predicted to be. But an explanation must be found. So . . . as the Spanish love a good conspiracy theory (especially when they can be portrayed as the victims), I thought I’d start one here – The LibDems lost because Nick Clegg’s wife is Spanish. And the Brits are racist, xenophobic, arrogant bastards. Who manage their elections about as well as most Third-World countries. You heard it here first.

I read somewhere last week there was unusual interest in this election in the USA, on the grounds the epoch-making emergence of a true third party could just be emulated there in due course. Well, for something to be copied, it must first happen. And it ain’t yet, much as my reader friend Moscow must have wished for it. But . . . there may yet be a degree of sensible electoral system reform in the UK. And no one can object to that. Looking at the electoral map, though, the first thing I’d do in Cameron’s shoes would be to give the Scots their independence and get rid of all the Labour MPs who represent them in London.

I should confess that - while I’m content that my counter-poll LibDem prediction proved reasonably accurate - not all my forecasts are worth betting on. Believe it or believe it not, I predicted that Cristiano Ronaldo would fail at Real Madrid. You can’t win ‘em all.

The good news here is that the Spanish economy emerged from recession in the last quarter. Or it might have done, as 0.1% is well within any reasonable margin of error. And, anyway, everyone expects thing to deteriorate this quarter. So a temporary respite. Just enough to justify Sr Zapatero’s mantra that there are reasons for optimism?

Moving to the wider picture - If you don’t understand why Spain is in the cross-wires of the people they’re forced to borrow more and more money from, try this article from Qorreo. Which basically says that a drama has not yet become a tragedy; but it still might. As ever, Sr Zapatero emerges from the analysis very tarnished. Sadly, the last sentence seems to me to be on the button – “With regional governments accounting for 57 percent of total public spending in Spain, there is a serious risk that national interests and the economy as a whole may find itself subordinated to entrenched regional interests, crowd-pleasing promises and partisan politics.” But, hey, that’s democracy. In Spain as it is in Britain. The least bad form of government we’ve yet come up with. As Graeme of South of Watford would surely agree - Shame the little people always end up paying the price for its shortcomings. C'est la guerre.

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