Talking
of whom . . . We've had another Spanish politician dismiss protesters
as Nazis. “They tried to pin things on me, like they did with the
Jews”, he spluttered. Appropriately, his forename is Jesús. Who
really was Jewish, of course.
And
still on Jesus . . . “A
Spanish nun has come up with a board game about Jesus Christ that has
sold 5,000 copies in Spain since its launch in March and is already
in demand in South America.” The game is for adults and children
aged 7 and above. But presumably not those who were recently refused
First Communion as they hadn't 'reached the age of Reason'. Anyway,
it's called
La
Alegría de la Fé
('The Joy of Faith') and costs a mere €50. Which seems rather a lot
in a recession-cum-depression. More
here.
Just
going back to sex for a second - The artist whom I mentioned
yesterday - Tracey Emin – launched herself onto a millionaire
career with a piece of installation art comprising a tent on which
she'd stuck the names of everyone she'd slept with. I found it
astonishing; I couldn't believe anyone had been to bed with her.
Perhaps they were all hard of seeing. By the way, if you thought the
tent was bad, it was nothing compared with her next artful piece, My
Bed.
Returning
to the theme of defending oneself against maniacs with machine-guns
in the USA, here's some good news for women. I guess there'll be a
kids' version coming along soon.
Here's
a Pontevedra shop which hasn't closed but of which the name is
something of an oxymoron:-
While
we're in Galicia, here's an example of the mindset around our 3
small, uncompetitive airports:- “The
help given for Ryanair by Santiago airport adulterates the market and
prejudices that of Vigo.” Well, yes. That's business for you.
Airlines favour one airport over another. And when there's three of
them where there should be only one, they play them off against each
other. Grow up.
An
international survey suggests that Spain scores better on civil
liberties than Germany, France and the UK. Though not so well on
corruption. No surprise there.
Interesting - The results of a new poll suggest that surveys are a waste of time.
I'm about ready to give up on the battle to stop people writing 'less' when they should write 'fewer'. The rule is very simple but it seems only my daughters – after years of having it drummed into them - know it and abide by it. Small mercies.
Finally . . . Here's a decent article on the EU and where it goes – or doesn't go – next. I can't just cite it as you wouldn't get past The Times' paywall.
Interesting - The results of a new poll suggest that surveys are a waste of time.
I'm about ready to give up on the battle to stop people writing 'less' when they should write 'fewer'. The rule is very simple but it seems only my daughters – after years of having it drummed into them - know it and abide by it. Small mercies.
Finally . . . Here's a decent article on the EU and where it goes – or doesn't go – next. I can't just cite it as you wouldn't get past The Times' paywall.
Europe’s
leaders must soon choose one of three solutions to the worsening
situation. All involve more pain – Ruth Lea
It
sometimes feels like I’ve read more articles about the problems of
the eurozone than any of us have had Italian pasta dishes or glasses
of French wine. There is a danger that we’ve become so familiar
with the crisis that we’ve become bored. But it’s not boring
for the Spanish people; it’s frightening.
Last
week Britain narrowly avoided a triple-dip recession but Spain has
suffered seven consecutive quarters of shrinkage. Protesters
weaving along Madrid’s Gran Via yesterday were
waving “austerity kills and ruins” banners. You can understand
why. Spanish unemployment stands at 27 per cent. Youth unemployment
is more than 50 per cent. Read those numbers again. They’re
terrifying.
Free
marketeers and fiscal conservatives should not feel obliged to defend
the austerity measures that are being imposed to maintain this
dysfunctional currency bloc. The spending cuts and economy-flattening
tax rises are much harsher than anything being imposed by George
Osborne.
Far
from getting better, the problems within the eurozone — the
economic fire on our doorstep — are intensifying. Across the
eurozone unemployment reached record levels this week. Even Germany,
the supposed powerhouse of the European economy, is stuttering. The
country may grow by just 0.5 per cent this year, while overall
eurozone GDP falls again.
More
broadly, Germany’s masterplan to turn every other eurozone country
into mini versions of itself is meeting stiffer and stiffer
resistance. One by one, the nations asked by Brussels and Berlin to
make heavy budget cuts are saying enough is enough. Resistance from
Greece, Spain and Italy might have been predictable. Unhappiness from
the Netherlands should be more worrying for Angela Merkel. And most
significant for the unity of the European project has been the battle
of leaked memorandums between Paris and Berlin that we’ve seen
break out over the past two days.
One
day we read about French unhappiness at German “egotistical
intransigence” on fiscal discipline. François Hollande’s
socialist party complained that Germany, along with Britain, was
responsible for the problems by pushing the right-wing policies of
“deindustrialisation, deregulation and disintegration”. The next
day we read about German unhappiness about France as the continent’s
“biggest problem child”. “French industry is increasingly
losing its competitiveness,” declared the German government memo.
France and Germany are supposedly Europe’s unbreakable alliance.
Austerity
measures are now under attack from many quarters — and not just
inside Europe. Back-pedalling on austerity policies was the hot theme
of the recent IMF meeting. Germany’s public response to all the
commotion will have two predictable ingredients. Some slippage in
fiscal targets will be permitted but not much. Germany’s Iron Frau
will want to remain resolute ahead of September’s federal
elections. Many of Mrs Merkel’s voters resent bailing out the
peripheral eurozone countries. They think Greece and Spain have
already been given enough help from German taxpayers.
If
extreme austerity is too high a price for maintaining the existing
arrangement, something more dramatic must happen to stop what looks
like a long-term decline of the European economy (though the Germany
is highly competitive). There are basically three options: economic
and political union; reconfiguration; or break-up. All three options
have significant downsides.
Economic
and political union would include sizeable fiscal transfers from
the richer northern countries, principally Germany, to the
beleaguered southern countries, with a “pooling” of sovereignty,
euro-speak for “loss of national sovereignty”. Whether there is
the political appetite for such a radical move in the name of
European solidarity remains to be seen. I suspect the brutal truth is
that no one knows.
Even
last summer there were cracks in the apparent determination of the
eurozone’s political elite to maintain the integrity of the
currency bloc. Expectations of Greece’s exit, intensified with all
the destabilising consequences for other vulnerable members,
including Spain and Italy. Spanish and Italian bond yields increased
alarmingly. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank,
then announced he would do “whatever it takes” to support the
euro.
There
was then a flurry of activity and the delineation of what exactly was
needed, including banking union, to establish a “genuine economic
and monetary union”. These activities indicated some willingness to
build a meaningful political union.
Mr
Draghi’s announcement, in particular, was extraordinarily
successful in calming worries of a break-up and the existential
threat to the eurozone receded. But as the threat receded, so
Europe’s politicians retreated from the necessary decisions to
build this union. Last December’s summit was, in particular, a damp
squib. Germany’s willingness to bear the cost of supporting the
eurozone in the longer term has to be questioned, given its ageing
and sceptical electorate. And this is despite Germany’s deep
commitment to the European project of “the ever closer union of the
peoples of Europe”.
Turning
to reconfiguration, the eurozone could split into two
currency areas — a northern euro for Germany and its economic
allies and a southern euro for the less competitive Mediterranean
economies. The southern euro would then devalue sharply against its
northern counterpart, injecting much needed competitiveness into the
southern economies. But there is no appetite for this — and there
would also be the issue of France. France should, arguably, be part
of the southern euro. It has lost competitiveness in recent years and
runs a huge trade deficit with super-efficient Germany. But it is
politically inconceivable that France would agree to such an
arrangement.
Finally,
there is either a partial or even complete break-up of the
currency area. I have little doubt that the shrinking of the euro
to the core northern countries, with the other member states
reverting to their own currencies, would ultimately prove to be more
sustainable than the current arrangement.
Europe
seems to be waiting for a magical solution but no such solution
exists. One of the three painful options is necessary. But will a
choice be made soon? I’m not optimistic.
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