Dawn

Dawn

Friday, October 06, 2017

Thoughts from Galicia: 6.10.17

Spanish life is not always likeable but it is compellingly loveable.
- Christopher Howse: A Pilgrim in Spain

If you've arrived here because of an interest in Galicia or Pontevedra, see my web page here.

Life in Spain
  • Cataluña 1: So, Spain's Constitutional Court - which can act remarkably quickly when presssed - has banned the meeting of the Catalan parliament set for next Monday. That's going to work well, isn't it? This court, by the way, seems to always hand down judgments which suit the president of the day. Funny, that.
  • Cataluña 2: At the end for this post is another excellent piece from Ambrose Evans Pritchard. I've refrained from my customary highlighting as I'd have to do it for the whole article.
  • Cataluña 3: Even before I'd read AEP's article I'd observed – to myself – that it would all depend on finance/money/cash. It really isn't necessary to send in an army, unless you want to show how tough (and stupid) you are. The Spanish government, backed by the EU, the ECB can surely cut this off the cash, forcing the Catalan government to 'see sense'. Capital flight would undermine the government completely. Though the corrupt politicians there already have their loot banked in Andorra and other EU states, of course. Early steps in this process? - 1. Standard & Poor’s today put Catalonia’s credit rating — at B+/B, it’s already deep into junk — on review for a downgrade of one notch or more, “If we believed that escalating political tensions between Catalonia’s government and Spain’s central government could put in question the full and timely refinancing of Catalonia’s short-term debt instruments or undermine the effectiveness of the central government’s financial support to Catalonia.” 2. People in Catalonia are already moving their money. While some of the wealthiest are shifting their funds out of Spain altogether, most people are moving their money from their bank branch in Catalonia to a branch somewhere else in Spain. The money stays within the same financial institution, which even in the case of Caixabank and Sabadell is registered in Spain. As such, the money is moving around but most of it’s not actually leaving the system.
  • Cataluña 4: It's scarcely credible to read that: The Rajoy administration dispatched two military convoys to Barcelona today to beef up its coercive capabilities in the city as well as provide logistic support to the Civil Guard and National Police based there. Is the man really as inept as he's long seemed? Has he no awareness of how things are perceived by decision-makers outside Spain? Does he think Spain can prosper without their endorsement and support? One fears so.
  • Cataluña 6: And here's quite the daftest comment I've read so far, from a pious Catholic who's tempted to see everything in terms of his religion:- It might there be some (even if slightly[!] tangential) relation between the current Catalan crisis and the later Pontevedra apparitions of Our Lady of Fatima to Sister Lucia in the late 1920s? People often forget that Fatima apparitions, albeit in a private capacity, occurred in Spain. Indeed I believe it was in Pontevedra that according to them testimony of Sister Lucia, Our Lady explicitly called for the Pope and Bishops to consecrate Russia in unison. She also asked people to pray for "Russia, Spain, Portugal, Europe and the world", in that order. The current Prime Minister of Spain, Mariano Rajoy, grew up in Pontevedra and was its council president after the fall of Franco. The centennial anniversary of the miracle of the Sun will be on October 13. The projected unilateral declaration of independence by the Catalans is slated to take place around the same time. If this happens, the Spanish government may revoke Catalan Parliament and impose direct rule - which in turn could lead to violence either way. Regardless, the optics of the Miracle of the Sun took place over the Iberian peninsula and on its anniversary the Iberian peninsula may be about to lapse into chaos if urgent external mediation is not initiated.
  • Cataluña 7: I have to admit to being very touched by the article/open letter I've appended below, from Laura Moreno de Lara
Spain: I haven't mentioned this subject for quite a while. So, here's something from the BBC, with a HT to Lenox of BusinessOver Tapas, on Corruption – A subject which is receiving little attention in Spain - thanks, perhaps, to the Catalonia crisis. The noise of which drowns out the issue that has caused the greatest public concern in Catalonia and the rest of Spain and which stains the parties that lead the two governments bent on a collision course.

The EU: Someone has rightly bemoaned the lack of common sense on the part of Spain's politicians. And it's true that politicians do sometimes display a capacity for this, especially when times are troubled and the situation desperate. The same can't be said for bureaucrats and technocrats, who rarely – if ever – display the capacity for common sense. And who are the people responsible for the creation and progression of the EU project? Reviewing Brussels' decisions over many years, can one really accuse the EU's grandes legumes of a surfeit of common sense? Something which, ironically, the commercially-oriented Catalans are said to possess – sens – more than other Spaniards. But it's currently conspicuous by its absence there, at least among the politicians. BTW . . . WTF does Ever closer union mean? That the EU project won't be finished until the end of time? Infinity??

The USA: Back in mid summer, Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, is said to have been close to resigning and called Donald Trump a moron. So, not everyone in the administration is mad and/or incompetent. I'm sure the tissue-skinned President will get this revenge one day, even if he needs Tillerson right now. Seems a bit harsh on morons, though.

Galicia: Don't run away with the idea that only the Catalans and the Basques wish to unhook themselves from Spain. Improve your Gallego by reading this

I enjoy reading the Most Read lists in all the right and left-wing papers I dip into. Today's Guardian has this as the second most perused article: Che Guevara's legacy still contentious 50 years after his death in Bolivia. All those ex-hippies, Trots and fellow-travellers, I guess.

Having travelled to the UK and back at least once a year for 17 years, I can say hand-on-heart that Brittany Ferries is one of the better companies to deal with. Easily irritated as I might be, I still can't recall any cause for complaint during any of these trips. But I do think they might have a better loyalty scheme for folk like me. Last time I looked, you really had to travel twice a year to get any benefit, though I should look again. En passant, not their fault but I woke up in the early hours of yesterday to find myself rather cold. When I got up, I realised that the eskimos who'd had the cabin before me had turned the thermostat down to sub-zero. It takes all sorts.  Reprise: 1. The 'Internet at Sea' was crap when I was on this boat – Pont-Aven – back in February. And it wasn't much better this time. 2. The cabins, despite being understandably tiny, cost more than a room in a 4 star hotel. Captive customer base, of course. Just part of the price. Oh, and 3. Absolutely every dish and utensil is plastic . . .

Finally . . .  Here's probably the most accurate sign in the entire world:-



Especially true if you get stopped and asked why you are visiting the UK from Spain etc., etc.

ARTICLE 1

By Laura Moreno de Lara

‘No, honey, you're not a Spaniard. To be Spanish is not to wave the flag, nor to scream like a bore phrases of hatred that I hope you do not feel. Nor is it to put a wristband on your wrist, or sing 'Cara al Sol' (the fascist anthem). The concept of being Spanish is something totally different, or at least should be, because at this point, I do not know what else to tell you.

As a Spaniard, I’ll tell you what it is for me to be Spanish:

To be Spanish is to burn when Doñana burns or to tremble when the City of Lorca trembled; it is to sit and listen to folk stories in Galicia and to believe them; or to go to Valencia and not feel rage to read a poster in Valencian, but rather that you are pleased with yourself to be able to understand it. To be Spanish is to think that the Canaries are as good as the Caribbean.

To feel Spanish is to suffer for not having lived la movida madrileña; it’s to fall in love with the sea when hearing Mediterraneo by Serrat; it’s to ask while drunk if your Catalan friend would teach you to dance sardanas, to want to go to Albacete to check if their feria is better than the one in Málaga and to be surprised to see just how beautiful Ceuta is.

For me to be Spanish is to be proud that in Andalucía we have beach, desert and snow; to feel almost as if it were my doing that a Alicantino is so close to winning a Nobel, to ask an Asturian to teach me to pour cider properly and to die of love seeing the beaches of the Basque Country in ‘Game of Thrones’.

You know how Spanish it is to drink a beer in the early afternoon: the Galician orujo, the siesta, the calimotxo, the paella, the tarta de Santiago, grandmother’s croquettes and the tortilla de patatas. It is the desire to show you the best of your city to the one who comes from outside and that you ask him about his; it is to make friends with a Basque and ask him to teach you how to count up to ten in euskera, just in case you return for 2 or 3 more pintxos; it is to be proud of being the leader of the world in transplants, of being part of the land of a thousand cultures and of being from the country of good cheer.

There is nothing more Spanish that having the hairs on your neck stand on end with a saeta or with a copla bien cantá (well-sung flamenco verse); seeing the sunset on the beaches of Cádiz; to discover almost without wanting to some fresh paradisiacal cove in Mallorca; to walk the Camino de Santiago in September cursing the cold or learning in Salamanca or Segovia that you do not have to be big to be beautiful.

So, I think, my love, miarma, honey, darling, my child ... that is to be Spanish, the rest of it is politics. 

But if you want to insist on your view of politics, I also want to say that you are wrong: because being Spanish is not wishing to break the face of anyone, but to suffer the unemployment situation of your neighbour or those terrible scenes of eviction that you have seen on the TV. Being Spanish is not opposing the YES or NO supporters of an entire autonomous community, but rather it is to be angry when they treat us like arseholes with each new case of corruption. To be a good Spaniard is to wish that in your country there is no more poverty, no more ignorance, no patients being attended in hospital corridors and, Goddammit, to want to stay here to work and contribute everything that, for so long, you have learned.

That is to be Spanish, or at least, I hope so.

ARTICLE 2

The EU shows its moral character backing violence in Catalonia: Ambrose Evans Pritchard

The Bourbons remain true to Talleyrand’s bon mot: they learn nothing, and forget nothing.
King Felipe VI’s fateful speech on Tuesday night prepares the way for full-blown intervention to crush the Catalan insurrection by any means necessary, with the unqualified backing of a European Union that has lost its moral compass.

The rebel leader Carles Puigdemont said King Felipe was “pouring petrol on the fire”. The Catalan riposte is tragically predictable. Its parliament will declare unilateral independence from Spain on Monday unless the Catholic Church can mediate an eleventh-hour compromise.

As matters stand, the Catalans are embarked on a course that will lead to their expulsion from the euro and the closure of their economic borders, for that is what the Spanish government has vowed to do – what the EU has endorsed, thinking that its dangerous bluff will never be called.

The Jesuitical casuistry of the Commission is revealing. I was The Daily Telegraph’s EU correspondent in early 2000 when Brussels imposed sanctions against Austria merely for admitting the right-wing Freedom Party into its governing coalition. 

The party had not broken any laws. It was legitimately elected. The matter was an internal Austrian affair. It was clear to many of us covering the episode that much of the animus against the Freedom Party stemmed from its Eurosceptic insolence.

We have seen a pattern of asymmetry in the way Brussels intrudes into the internal affairs of member states. It has repeatedly berated – and threatened – the eurosceptic governments of Poland and Hungary over the rule of law. “The double standard of the Commission leaps to the eye,” said Polish MEP Ryszard Legutko.

Frans Timmermans, the Commission’s vice-president, crossed the Rubicon by backing the actions of Guardia Civil on Sunday. Speaking in the European Parliament in a carefully-scripted message, he endorsed a decision to storm voting centres and to bludgeon Catalan citizens who were trying to vote – rightly or wrongly, but peacefully and in good faith. 

“None of us want to see violence in our societies. However it is a duty for any government to uphold the law, and this sometimes does require the proportionate use of force,” he said.
This comment is Orwellian. The actions were patently not proportionate. There was no need to use any force. The vote could simply have been declared null and void. 

The violence almost certainly breaches  multiple clauses of the EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights but as I always feared would happen, the EU uses the Charter selectively, when it serves the interests of the European Project. Be that as it may, Brussels now bears a high share of responsibility for what happens next in Spain. If its iron-fist apologia for violence causes the country to spin into insurgency and counter-insurgency, the EU owns the outcome. 

Spain’s authorities and media talk about the crisis as if it were chiefly a financial disaster for Catalonia, one that could be isolated. Much inks has been spilt on a Credit Suisse report warning of a 20pc crash in output – for the Catalans. Finance minister Luis de Guindos says the secessionist state would suffer “brutal pauperisation”, a collapse in GDP of 25pc to 30pc, and a devaluation of up to 50pc. Spain would miraculously come through just fine.

To the extent that Spain’s governing elites believe this fairy tale, they are less likely to recoil from catastrophic error. Former vice-president Alfonso Guerra (a Socialist) is already calling for the army to put down the Catalan “coup d’etat”.

Markets are struggling to navigate these complexities. Investors are fleeing Catalan debt, driving up yields on 2018 bonds threefold since late June to 2.6pc, but yields on equivalent Spanish bonds have scarcely moved.

The IBEX index of equities fell 2.4pc on Wednesday in the worst drop since Brexit. Yet much of the damage has been for Catalan lenders Sabadell and Caixabank, on fears that they could lose access to ECB liquidity. Oryzon Genomic leapt 27pc after announcing that it would relocate from Barcelona to Madrid.

This all plays to the comforting narrative that economic dangers are largely confined to the rebels. This is self-evidently absurd. Catalonia makes of a fifth of Spanish GDP. It is a hub of dynamism with a per capita income higher than the EU average. It is structural net contributor to the Spanish treasury, even though its finances are a mess. 

If Catalonia were quarantined and reduced to ‘brutal pauperisation’ as Mr de Guindos suggests, Spain itself would slide towards bankruptcy. Its public debt ratio would jump instantly to 120pc of GDP. The economy would collapse into a pan-Iberian depression. The budget deficit would jump to double-digit levels. Those Spanish banks holding €215bn (£190bn) of Spanish public debt would be engulfed by our old friend the 'doom-loop'.

It would be impossible for the ECB to shore up the system through QE alone. The only way to avoid a Spanish default would be to activate the bail-out mechanism (OMT), but this would entail tough terms and a vote in the German Bundestag. By then, a fresh eurozone crisis would be raging. 

We all now watch with horror as events unfold. One of the constitutional functions of the Spanish monarchy is to act as national arbiter. King Felipe has instead asserted himself as champion of the hardliners, denouncing the Catalan leaders as Putschists, guilty of “inadmissible disloyalty”, “totally beyond the boundaries of the law and democracy”. 

Barcelona’s mayor Ida Colau, who opposes secession, said the speech was “irresponsible and unworthy of a head of state ... There was no solution. No mention of the wounded. No call for dialogue.”

On the surface of it, King Felipe is of course correct to declare it the duty of the state to uphold the “constitutional order” and to protect the rights of law-abiding Catalans being dragged against their will into a desperate adventure. 

The trouble with this rhetoric – and there has been a concerted attempt in Madrid to ridicule last Sunday’s vote as “farce”, a non-event – is that it willfully ignores the volcanic strength of Catalan feeling. 

It should be obvious that matters have moved beyond "farce". Whether you blame the headstrong Catalan leaders for charging ahead or blame the guerrilla campaign by Spain’s Partido Popular to roll back Catalonia's devolution settlement, the fact is that 2.26m Catalans voted (and many more tried), with 90pc backing secession. 

The eruption of national feeling is a political fact. Common sense would suggest that the only way in a modern democracy is a legal referendum as in Scotland, or a negotiated deal along the lines of Basque autonomy with full tax-raising powers.   

Yes, the Catalans leaders are in breach of Spain’s constitution but elemental questions of national identity are always political. At a certain point it becomes an evasion to fall back on legalisms. 

Courts and constitutions are by nature the tools of the status quo, and constitutions can in any case be changed. Indeed, Spain's constitution was changed on the orders of the ECB conveyed in a secret letter to former premier Jose Luis Zapatero.

The repression of 2017 has begun. The police chiefs of Catalonia's Mossos d'Esquadra are already charged with sedition. Madrid is preparing to launch direct rule and a campaign of coercion.

Brussels has given a green light and is totally complicit. Welcome to the Europe’s brave new world.

No comments: